This story ran today on Kvue a TV station in Austin, Tx:
Tents set up outside Dell Children’s for flu cases
Watch the video showing the tents and how they are set up and are being used. This is the 5th Hospital I have heard that has put tents up in their parking lots in the past week.

I am also hearing stories of Hospital ERs and ICU’s overflowing with the increase of H1N1 patients throughout the South East. Also reports of health care running out of supplies are just beginning. The orders for face masks and other protective equipment is rising to an unsupportable level.

These are all indicators of the second wave of H1N1 beginning. Yet people still say to me “don’t worry, it’s mild”.

What we are seeing in the hospital parking lots may end up being like sprinkling water on a house fire with your fingers. The tents in Austin hold from 8 to 16 additional people each. What are they going to do in 2 weeks when hundreds if not thousands a day seek help? How many of them will be desperately ill in need of ICU care? How many will be told “no more room”, told to go home only to suffer and die?

How many people who suffer a heart attack will die, when under normal conditions they would be rushed to the hospital and put on a ventilator in ICU and survive?
How many stroke or accident victims will be left to fend for themselves? How many kids with asthma who can’t catch a breath?

The other day I called my Union to ask a simple question. The phone rang and rang, and when a young man answered, he was breathless and obviously too busy to answer the phone. Where was everyone else? The phone has always been answered quickly. You could say its the economy and downsizing, or a coincidence of overlapping vacations or lunch breaks… it happens. But when it happens in every company at the same time, try to get something done. Your suppliers will be out, as well as your clients and co-workers. Things will grind to a halt for a while.

What about the critical infrastructure workers, the people that keep the lights on, or the truckers who put food in the stores or the farm hands who tend the fields. What happens when they are sick in large numbers all at the same time?

So, I should stop worrying because H1N1 is mild and “so, people will get sick and some will die, oh well, that’s life” right?

Remember to tell me that when you call your doctor because you are sick and he doesn’t answer, or go to the store and find it closed, or have your house catch fire and no firetrucks show up.

Watching them put up those tents in the Hospital parking lots is really interesting and it’s great that they can handle the extra patient load.

So I ask again, what is it about 100 million sick people that you don’t get?

This is from CDC on school closures on Tuesday, May 5, 2009
http://www.hhs.gov/news/press/2009pres/05/20090505a.html

“As CDC’s daily press briefings have illustrated, much has been learned quickly about the virus’s severity and its spread. We have learned that in many communities, the virus is widely circulating. When influenza becomes common in a community, it is unlikely that actions such as closing schools or daycare facilities are effective when it comes to slowing or stopping the spread of influenza viruses. Instead, such measures bring significant cost—such as interrupting student learning—without a significant public health benefit. In addition, we have learned that the disease currently being caused by this novel flu virus appears to be similar with that typically caused by seasonal influenza. Although many people may get sick, the available data do not indicate we are facing an unusually severe influenza virus.”
“With the modified policy being issued today, CDC no longer recommends that communities with a laboratory-confirmed case of influenza A H1N1 consider adopting school dismissal or childcare closure measures. Rather, in line with policies being undertaken in Seattle, New York and Canada, CDC has modified its policy to recommend implementation of measures that focus on keeping all students, faculty and staff with symptoms of influenza out of schools and childcare facilities during their period of illness and recuperation, when they are potentially infectious to others.”

And from WHO on Fri Sep 11, 2009:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090911/hl_nm/us_flu_who_schools_1

School closures can slow flu, timing critical: WHO
GENEVA (Reuters) – Closing schools at the start of an H1N1 flu outbreak can greatly slow its spread and buy time to build up drug stocks, the World Health Organization said on Friday.
Classrooms have played a role in the fast transmission of swine flu in New York and other locations. As educational institutions welcome back students across the northern hemisphere, many are considering how to reduce infection risks.
Certain steps can slow the spread of H1N1, the United Nations agency said. The greatest benefits come “when schools are closed very early in an outbreak, ideally before 1 percent of the population falls ill,” it said.
“Under ideal conditions, school closure can reduce the demand for health care by an estimated 30-50 percent at the peak of the pandemic.”
It added: “However, if schools close too late in the course of a community-wide outbreak, the resulting reduction in transmission is likely to be very limited.”
Reducing the number of people needing medical care is especially important because clinics risk being overrun.
The H1N1 virus has killed at least 3,205 people worldwide since emerging last April in North America and is the predominant flu virus circulating in both hemispheres, according to the WHO’s latest weekly update issued separately on Friday.
Bolivia, Ecuador, Venezuela and other South American states are reporting higher levels of respiratory disease. The flu is on the rise in India, Bangladesh, Cambodia and eastern Europe.
H1N1 usually causes mild symptoms, but pregnant women and people with conditions such as asthma are at higher risk.
School closures can provide extra time for authorities to build up supplies of antiviral drugs such as Roche’s Tamiflu or vaccines being developed by companies like Novartis, GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi-Aventis.
Students, teachers and other staff should stay at home if they are feeling sick, and schools should set aside space to isolate anyone who takes ill on the premises, it added.
School closures carry a hidden economic cost, as parents stay at home to take care of children. Studies estimate closures can lead to the absence of 16 percent of the workforce, in addition to normal levels of absenteeism and absenteeism due to illness, the WHO said.

This article translated with Google Translator shows that school closure in Argentina worked.

original story in Spanish

Argentina Dealing with the epidemic of influenza A
After the major drop in infection recorded in recent weeks, experts consulted by lanacion.com acted discussed how the health system during the most intense outbreak of the disease

Ivan Ruiz
For lanacion.com
“In Argentina has passed the peak of influenza,” said Health Minister Juan Manzur two weeks ago. After the major drop in the number of infected lanacion.com specialists consulted to see how the country confronted the pandemic . The delay in the suspension of classes, lack of universal policies and communicative deficiencies were identified as the main reasons that increased the number of deaths.

What went wrong against the H1N1 virus? “Not acted quickly. The decisions came later, when he had passed the peak of the problem,” said Enrique Casanueva, chief of Infectious Diseases Children’s Hospital Austral. And he said the early school break generated a “positive impact” on society, but that should have been implemented before.
“When classes were suspended, and people cared more. In July, for example, we have had consultations in the hospital less than in previous years. They avoided going for not getting,” he said.

The infectious diseases specialist Eduardo Lopez, head of the Department of Medicine Children’s Hospital Ricardo Gutierrez, also referred to the late decision-making. “If they had closed schools two weeks before, had fallen behind the disease outbreak and then there was more about the spring, it was something important.”

The first cases of influenza A in Buenos Aires were linked to the school. For this reason, educational institutions Fray Mamerto Esquiú Belgrano, the Walker School in Palermo, and schools and North Hills Del Pilar, Buenos Aires district of Pilar, closed its doors on May 25 as a precautionary measure, after detection of cases of influenza A.
“The school-age child is the great disseminator of the virus,” said Lopez. He also highlighted the positive impact generated by the advance of the holiday. “It was a shock to people. From there, they took more preventive measures, such as not attending public place and increase personal hygiene. That move caused a domino effect.”
In the same vein, Paul Bonvehi, Cemic Infectology chief, confirmed that the number of infections suffered a sharp decline after the advance of the holiday. Speaking to lanacion.com criticized: “In June, when classes were suspended in some schools, there was a proposal to enter into a total school break, but was not finally adopted.” And he admitted that “possibly this measure would have generated a positive impact.”

There is lots of internet talk about not taking the vax. Most of the concern has been due to the confusion of the CDC’s communication to the public regarding the severity of the H1N1 Pandemic Flu. We have been told that the flu is “mild”, no worse than the “seasonal flu”. If this virus is so mild, why all the fuss about vaccinating all these people?

Well the truth is that while H1N1 is mild in most cases, there is a percentage of people who will get severely ill and without Tamiflu and intensive medical treatment will die.

Who will get severely ill? Who will die? It’s a crap shoot with certain people being more at risk. About 60% of those are pregnant women & people with certain underlying health issues. 40% are healthy children and adults.

Read page 30 here for a lsit of underlying health issues that increase your risk of dying from H1N1

Relatively few people caught the virus during the Spring/Summer wave while Tamiflu and ICUs were able to handle most of the severe cases keeping the death rate down. This Fall many more will sicken. Tamiflu and ICU’s will be unavailable to most and many more will die.

The only thing that may protect you is an effective vaccine against the virus.

Seeds of doubt have been planted. Why is the Government pushing me to take a new untested vaccine if the threat of dying is low?

Well, the CDC knows that H1N1 is not mild. They know it will cause great suffering and death to many more than they are saying. That is why they are pushing the vaccine, however their big fear is causing panic. So they pronounce the virus “mild” and push a vaccine program.

CDC – Your messaging plan is not working. People are afraid because they don’t understand. You are talking out of both sides of your mouth and the public is not stupid.

From what I’ve read, the H1N1 vaccine is made the same way they make seasonal flu vaccine. H1N1 has been around for years as one of the strains of seasonal flu. The yearly vaccine protects against that season’s strain, so vaccine manufacturers have experience with it. The vaccine for Pandemic H1N1 should also be safe.

I do not fear the vaccine.

There is talk of “adjuvants” being added to extend the supply of vaccine enabling more people to get it. Some people believe adjuvants cause side effects and even death. I am not going to debate that issue as it is above my pay grade, however you can read here that they are not planning on using adjuvants in the vaccine. i also read elsewhere that the vaccine will come in 3 forms… single dose syringes and vials with no adjuvant and 10 dose vials with adjuvant. I don’t think the CDC knows yet what they need to do. If I had a choice I would take the non adjuvant form from the single dose syringe or vial.

It is anticipated that enough thimerosal-free vaccine in pre-loaded single dose syringes will be available for young children and pregnant women. That has also been a concern.

The alternative is to stay home and not get exposed until the virus has passed through your area. That may not be until next Summer after the possible third wave. Do you have enough food and meds to stay home? Most likely not.

The CDC is saying that 45 million doses of the vaccine will be available by mid October, well after the first wave has begun. They say you may need 2 shots 3-4 weeks apart then develop immunity 2-4 weeks later. Thats poetntially a 2 month wait until you are fully protected… mid December.

With 45 million doses, only 22.5 million people can be vaccinated out of the 300 million people in the USA. The chances that you will be vaccinated before the pandemic is over is small unless something changes.

Click here for the vaccine allocation plan to see where you stand in line.

The committee recommended that vaccination efforts initially focus on 5 target groups: vaccination for pregnant women, people who live with or care for children younger than 6 months of age, healthcare and emergency medical services personnel, persons between the ages of 6 months through 24 years, and people ages 25 through 64 years who are at higher risk for novel H1N1 because of chronic health disorders or compromised immune systems. Once the demand for vaccine for the prioritized groups has been met at the local level, programs and providers should also begin vaccinating everyone from the ages of 25 through 64 years. Once vaccine demand among younger age groups has been met, programs and providers should offer vaccination to people 65 or older.

Hey CDC, are you listening?

I Want My Swine Flu Vaccine!!!!!

Just in case… Buy Food!

For unfiltered news, discussion and information about H1N1 please visit Pandemic Flu Information

This wave, unlike the Spring/Summer wave will sicken about 30% of our Nation. That’s approximately 100 million people. The current average death rate (Case Fatality Rate or CFR) is .5%. That would result in 500,000 deaths over the next few months (Sept – Dec 2009).

A leaked report from the CDC on the situation as of 7/31/09:
Directors Update Brief novel 2009 H1N1

Most cases to date have been mild. Many people have had a moderate flu, suffering for a few days and recovering at home with the help of the anti-viral Tamiflu. Tamiflu still works if taken soon after symptoms begin. A small number have gotten severely ill requiring hospitalization and some of those cases worsen until the person is put on a ventilator in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Deaths are increasing everyday in the US and around the World.

When the second wave hits, there will not be enough Tamiflu, nor ventilators, nor ICU beds. Health Care as we know it will cease to exist. Hospitals currently are at 80% capacity on average. They simply will not be able to handle a Pandemic surge of severely ill patients. Also, routine hospital and emergency care will suffer as the number of sick and worried well overwhelm Hospital Emergency Rooms.

The .5% CFR will no doubt rise because of this and perhaps significantly.

On another side of the coin, most of the deaths have occurred in the 24-65 years old range. Unlike seasonal flu which kills the elderly, H1N1 kills the young to middle age adult. These represent the “working adult”, those who keep your lights on and food on the store shelves. If a significant number of these “critical workers” fall ill at the same time, we could experience disruptions in the both the Critical Infrastructure and the Just In Time Delivery System (JIT). That is a recipe for disaster.

So how do we avoid so many deaths?

Slow the spread of the virus.

The primary way flu is spread is by children who catch and spread it in school. They then bring the virus home to their siblings, parents and into the greater community. There are many studies proving that school closures stop flu outbreaks. School closures have worked in Mexico and NYC this Spring and in South America this Summer.

I call on the CDC to change it’s position on school closure and immediately close all schools until a vaccine is tested and distributed. We must slow down the spread of H1N1 into the greater adult community and avoid a collapse of our health care system and critical infrastructure.

i also call upon every citizen of the United States to buy enough food to last several weeks as insurance against JIT disruptions.

Do not blindly trust the CDC. They are misleading the American Public. More on that in a future blog post.

For more information visit:
Pandemic Flu Information

Learn how to prepare for the Pandemic:
Get Pandemic Ready

Students please visit:
Students Prep America

An excellent preparation guide:
Becoming Self Sufficient